D4: Relative abundance and/or distribution of widespread species

Short Description

This indicator will use regularly collected data to track changes in relative abundance and/or distribution of species which are widespread and characteristic of different broad habitats in England including birds, bats, butterflies, moths, other invertebrates, and plants. The indicator will have 2 components: (a) changes in the relative abundance of those widespread species for which relevant data are available; and (b) changes in the distribution (the number of 1 km grid squares in which species are recorded in any given year) of widespread species for which relevant data are available.

Readiness and links to data

This indicator is not available for reporting in 2023 in a finalised form. An interim indicator is presented here that shows trends in the abundance of (a) breeding wild birds, (b) widespread butterflies and (c) widespread bats in England. The expectation is that this indicator will be expanded to include more species groups and habitat types in the future. Some data are already published annually elsewhere (wild birds, butterflies on farmland and in woodland, and bats), and methods for analysing trends in plants are being developed. Further work is required to combine and present trends for different species groups and habitat types within the abundance and distribution measures in this indicator.

Notes on indicator

While the overall trends for the composite indices presented in this indicator are clear from the charts, they mask the trends for individual species within each index – some farmland and woodland species trends have increased whereas others have either remained the same or decreased over time. Further details on these individual species trends are available in the source publications.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions in England, the Breeding Bird Survey report prepared by the British Trust for Ornithology, the RSPB and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee collected limited data in 2020 and therefore it was not possible to update the indicators for breeding wild birds in woodland and on farmland in England in the 2022 update of the Outcome Indicator Framework.

While the most recent Breeding Bird Survey was able to collect sufficient data in 2021 to update the woodland and farmland indicators in the source publication, the data were released too late to be included in the 2023 update of this indicator. Therefore, the latest data on farmland and woodland birds can be found in the Wild bird populations in England release.

Indicator components

Figure D4ai: Trends in abundance of breeding wild birds in woodland in England, 1970 to 2019

Table D4ai: Trends in abundance of breeding wild birds in woodland in England, 1970 to 2019

Year 95% confidence interval lower bound 95% confidence interval upper bound Smoothed index Unsmoothed index
1970 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1971 102.07 104.52 103.20 106.10
1972 103.72 108.76 105.88 112.48
1973 104.11 110.94 107.10 110.99
1974 102.97 111.48 106.96 110.60
1975 101.48 111.37 105.86 110.89
1976 99.48 110.17 104.13 103.94
1977 97.49 108.41 102.06 110.21
1978 95.39 106.22 99.67 101.63
1979 94.02 104.54 98.06 93.59
1980 93.37 104.05 97.91 104.52
1981 93.73 104.15 98.08 105.70
1982 93.39 103.89 97.90 96.31
1983 92.69 103.94 97.67 102.86
1984 91.77 103.40 96.92 102.76
1985 90.19 102.14 95.41 101.53
1986 88.80 100.44 93.78 90.28
1987 88.28 99.91 93.21 92.74
1988 88.01 100.08 93.33 98.22
1989 87.25 99.74 92.57 100.42
1990 85.11 97.45 90.14 94.78
1991 81.97 93.84 86.79 86.19
1992 79.09 90.48 83.88 83.70
1993 76.87 88.66 82.00 84.03
1994 75.68 87.37 80.90 84.30
1995 74.69 86.42 80.29 80.05
1996 73.93 85.72 79.86 84.26
1997 73.70 85.96 79.60 79.21
1998 74.07 86.61 79.79 81.61
1999 74.29 87.16 80.05 82.56
2000 74.02 87.38 79.73 83.95
2001 73.05 86.59 78.64 81.04
2002 71.25 85.11 77.38 77.32
2003 70.51 84.21 76.64 77.59
2004 70.50 83.81 76.59 77.88
2005 71.06 83.95 76.98 79.83
2006 71.49 84.59 77.32 80.47
2007 71.52 84.97 77.39 79.67
2008 71.25 85.25 77.46 79.30
2009 71.16 85.82 77.88 73.59
2010 71.80 87.07 78.79 79.67
2011 72.26 87.28 79.33 86.13
2012 71.82 86.60 78.58 81.47
2013 70.48 85.06 77.08 72.77
2014 69.62 84.35 75.96 78.00
2015 68.92 83.07 75.11 78.55
2016 68.09 81.93 74.24 76.51
2017 67.05 80.80 73.34 73.74
2018 66.13 79.24 72.45 72.77
2019 64.00 78.22 71.27 73.23

Trend description for D4ai

The indicator for breeding wild birds in woodland in England has declined by almost 30% between 1970 and 2019.

Assessment of change

Indicators for breeding wild birds in England are also reported in the England Biodiversity Indicators, which presents a short and long-term assessment for the same time periods used in this Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. These assessment results were reused here as the England Biodiversity Indicators method is tailored to the datasets of the specific taxonomic group (birds) and factors-in information on confidence. The assessment found a decrease (deterioration) in the abundance of breeding wild birds in woodland in England over the short and long-term periods. No medium-term assessment results are available for this indicator using the England Biodiversity Indicators methodology and it cannot be used to assess change since 2018.

Details on the England Biodiversity Indicators assessment methododology for this indicator can be found in sections 5 and 6 of the latest England Biodiversity Indicators report. Further information on the standard assessment used in the Outcome Indicator Framework, along with details on the methodology, is provided in the Assessment background page. Summaries by 25 Year Environment Plan goal and information on indicator links are presented in the Assessment results pages.

Table D4ai: Assessment of change

Component Subcomponent Period Date range Percentage change Smoothing function Assessment of change
D4ai Breeding wild birds in woodland Short term 2013 to 2018 -6.01 Smoothed data Deterioration
D4ai Breeding wild birds in woodland Medium term N/A N/A N/A Not assessed
D4ai Breeding wild birds in woodland Long term 1970 to 2018 -27.55 Smoothed data Deterioration

Note that smoothed data presented in Figure D4ai were used for percentage change calculations. The smoothing method is specific to this indicator and differs from the default Loess smoothing approach adopted for most indicators for the Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. Percentage change figures in Table D4ai may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percentage change refers to the difference seen between the first and last years in the specified date range.

Figure D4aii: Trends in abundance of breeding wild birds on farmland in England, 1970 to 2019

Table D4aii: Trends in abundance of breeding wild birds on farmland in England, 1970 to 2019

Year 95% confidence interval lower bound 95% confidence interval upper bound Smoothed index Unsmoothed index
1970 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1971 97.27 100.58 98.97 103.74
1972 95.33 101.55 98.59 104.32
1973 93.95 103.16 98.87 101.12
1974 94.18 105.30 100.16 101.93
1975 95.36 108.37 102.16 105.97
1976 96.18 110.56 103.60 109.95
1977 95.55 110.28 103.25 111.96
1978 92.26 107.60 100.70 103.75
1979 88.72 103.66 96.77 97.91
1980 84.14 98.85 92.26 97.18
1981 79.60 93.84 87.32 92.20
1982 74.26 88.91 82.29 81.66
1983 70.06 84.55 77.90 80.63
1984 66.42 80.53 73.97 80.03
1985 62.55 76.55 70.12 73.56
1986 59.04 73.35 66.69 67.58
1987 56.73 71.65 64.36 64.60
1988 55.31 70.42 63.25 64.59
1989 54.85 69.41 62.76 66.55
1990 53.91 68.04 61.93 68.23
1991 51.76 66.11 60.16 63.35
1992 49.67 63.91 57.81 59.14
1993 47.92 61.56 55.70 53.50
1994 47.01 60.23 54.51 56.18
1995 46.68 59.61 53.99 58.13
1996 45.97 58.65 53.44 56.84
1997 45.09 57.90 52.57 55.32
1998 44.45 56.95 51.59 52.58
1999 43.89 56.12 50.89 52.01
2000 43.74 55.55 50.63 52.85
2001 43.80 55.54 50.69 52.99
2002 43.95 55.77 50.88 53.02
2003 43.99 55.93 51.03 52.99
2004 43.87 56.18 50.97 53.29
2005 43.49 55.72 50.51 53.60
2006 42.72 54.62 49.56 52.83
2007 41.71 53.25 48.36 48.29
2008 40.92 52.08 47.38 49.72
2009 40.21 51.38 46.67 47.32
2010 39.66 50.70 46.18 47.78
2011 39.10 49.96 45.65 48.19
2012 38.34 49.05 44.82 48.65
2013 37.46 48.00 43.79 43.62
2014 36.79 47.29 43.00 43.91
2015 36.35 46.72 42.49 45.52
2016 36.09 46.29 42.02 42.95
2017 35.54 45.48 41.56 44.36
2018 34.98 44.78 40.98 41.94
2019 34.29 44.34 40.35 42.23

Trend description for D4aii

The indicator for breeding wild birds on farmland in England has declined by almost 60% between 1970 and 2019. Farmland birds experienced steeper declines during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s because of rapid changes in farmland management.

Assessment of change

Indicators for breeding wild birds in England are also reported in the England Biodiversity Indicators, which presents a short and long-term assessment for the same time periods used in this Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. These assessment results were reused here as the England Biodiversity Indicators method is tailored to the datasets of the specific taxonomic group (birds) and factors-in information on confidence. The assessment found a decrease (deterioration) in breeding wild birds on farmland in England over the short and long-term periods. No medium-term assessment results are available for this indicator using the England Biodiversity Indicators methodology and it cannot be used to assess change since 2018.

Details on the England Biodiversity Indicators assessment methodology for this indicator can be found in sections 5 and 6 of the latest England Biodiversity Indicators report. Further information on the standard assessment used in the Outcome Indicator Framework, along with details on the methodology, is provided in the Assessment background page. Summaries by 25 Year Environment Plan goal and information on indicator links are presented in the Assessment results pages.

Table D4aii: Assessment of change

Component Subcomponent Period Date range Percentage change Smoothing function Assessment of change
D4aii Breeding wild birds on farmland Short term 2013 to 2018 -6.41 Smoothed data Deterioration
D4aii Breeding wild birds on farmland Medium term N/A N/A N/A Not assessed
D4aii Breeding wild birds on farmland Long term 1970 to 2018 -59.02 Smoothed data Deterioration

Note that smoothed data presented in Figure D4aii were used for percentage change calculations. The smoothing method is specific to this indicator and differs from the default Loess smoothing approach adopted for most indicators for the Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. Percentage change figures in Table D4aii may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percentage change refers to the difference seen between the first and last years in the specified date range.

Figure D4bi: Trends in abundance of widespread butterflies in woodland in England, 1990 to 2021

Table D4bi: Trends in abundance of widespread butterflies in woodland in England, 1990 to 2021

Year 95% confidence interval lower bound 95% confidence interval upper bound Smoothed index Unsmoothed index
1990 81.61 106.03 93.82 100.00
1991 79.93 100.76 90.34 90.36
1992 77.86 95.92 86.89 110.40
1993 75.42 91.52 83.47 55.72
1994 72.75 87.59 80.17 65.16
1995 69.95 84.07 77.01 86.90
1996 67.04 80.82 73.93 85.11
1997 64.12 77.76 70.94 94.62
1998 61.25 74.86 68.06 58.21
1999 58.57 72.17 65.37 49.89
2000 56.14 69.75 62.94 50.00
2001 54.00 67.60 60.80 48.19
2002 52.13 65.71 58.92 56.23
2003 50.46 64.03 57.25 70.79
2004 48.94 62.49 55.71 73.45
2005 47.53 61.07 54.30 55.72
2006 46.26 59.80 53.03 56.23
2007 45.16 58.72 51.94 36.81
2008 44.28 57.85 51.07 35.16
2009 43.62 57.21 50.41 55.21
2010 43.12 56.72 49.92 62.95
2011 42.76 56.36 49.56 55.72
2012 42.53 56.13 49.33 29.24
2013 42.46 56.06 49.26 57.54
2014 42.48 56.12 49.30 50.81
2015 42.55 56.33 49.44 49.20
2016 42.60 56.74 49.67 35.56
2017 42.55 57.41 49.98 46.77
2018 42.25 58.39 50.32 66.99
2019 41.57 59.69 50.63 58.48
2020 40.44 61.35 50.90 58.61
2021 38.86 63.39 51.13 39.72

Trend description for D4bi

The indicator for widespread butterflies in woodland in England declined between 1990 and 2010, more steeply than the decline seen in the farmland butterflies indicator. However, in recent years, the woodland butterfly indicator has shown little change.

Assessment of change

Indicators for widespread butterflies in England are also reported in the England Biodiversity Indicators, which presents a short, medium and long-term assessment for the same time periods used in this Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. These assessment results were reused here as the England Biodiversity Indicators method is tailored to the datasets of the specific taxonomic group (butterflies) and factors-in information on confidence. There was little or no change in the abundance of widespread butterflies in woodland over the short and medium-term assessment periods. Over the long-term period, decreases in widespread butterflies in woodland were recorded.

Change since 2018 has also been assessed using the England Biodiversity Indicators methodology. Little or no change was seen since 2018 for woodland butterflies. However, this is based on 4 data points so should be considered as indicative and not evidence of a clear trend.

Details on the England Biodiversity Indicators assessment methodology for this indicator can be found in sections 5 and 6 of the latest England Biodiversity Indicators report. Further information on the standard assessment used in the Outcome Indicator Framework, along with details on the methodology, is provided in the Assessment background page. Summaries by 25 Year Environment Plan goal and information on indicator links are presented in the Assessment results pages.

Table D4bi: Assessment of change

Component Subcomponent Period Date range Percentage change Smoothing function Assessment of change
D4bi Widespread butterflies in woodland Short term 2016 to 2021 2.94 Smoothed data Little or no change
D4bi Widespread butterflies in woodland Medium term 2011 to 2021 3.16 Smoothed data Little or no change
D4bi Widespread butterflies in woodland Long term 1990 to 2021 -45.51 Smoothed data Deterioration

Note that smoothed data presented in Figure D4bi were used for percentage change calculations. The smoothing method is specific to this indicator and differs from the default Loess smoothing approach adopted for most indicators for the Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. Percentage change figures in Table D4bi may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percentage change refers to the difference seen between the first and last years in the specified date range.

Figure D4bii: Trends in abundance of widespread butterflies on farmland in England, 1990 to 2021

Table D4bii: Trends in abundance of widespread butterflies on farmland in England, 1990 to 2021

Year 95% confidence interval lower bound 95% confidence interval upper bound Smoothed index Unsmoothed index
1990 95.21 123.05 109.13 100.00
1991 95.82 120.04 107.93 119.94
1992 96.06 117.37 106.72 125.31
1993 95.94 115.04 105.49 75.33
1994 95.53 113.04 104.29 89.74
1995 94.85 111.33 103.09 104.95
1996 93.94 109.80 101.87 116.41
1997 92.81 108.35 100.58 132.73
1998 91.52 106.92 99.22 99.77
1999 90.14 105.50 97.82 89.54
2000 88.75 104.11 96.43 94.41
2001 87.38 102.76 95.07 87.30
2002 86.07 101.48 93.77 85.90
2003 84.83 100.26 92.55 105.92
2004 83.67 99.11 91.39 103.99
2005 82.61 98.05 90.33 91.41
2006 81.68 97.12 89.40 92.26
2007 80.93 96.37 88.65 68.55
2008 80.41 95.84 88.12 64.86
2009 80.13 95.54 87.84 93.11
2010 80.08 95.47 87.77 95.72
2011 80.23 95.59 87.91 87.30
2012 80.57 95.93 88.25 53.70
2013 81.10 96.50 88.80 104.23
2014 81.71 97.26 89.48 101.15
2015 82.35 98.22 90.28 93.33
2016 82.93 99.43 91.18 70.63
2017 83.39 100.94 92.17 89.33
2018 83.63 102.77 93.20 109.90
2019 83.54 104.92 94.23 109.90
2020 83.08 107.39 95.24 101.15
2021 82.27 110.20 96.23 86.90

Trend description for D4bii

The indicator for widespread butterflies on farmland in England declined between 1990 and 2010. However, in recent years, the farmland butterfly indicator has increased to a figure similar to its 1990 baseline value.

Assessment of change

Indicators for widespread butterflies in England are also reported in the England Biodiversity Indicators, which presents a short, medium and long-term assessment for the same time periods used in this Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. These assessment results were reused here as the England Biodiversity Indicators method is tailored to the datasets of the specific taxonomic group (butterflies) and factors-in information on confidence. The assessment found little or no change in the abundance of widespread butterflies on farmland over the short, medium term and long term.

Change since 2018 has also been assessed using the England Biodiversity Indicators methodology. Little or no change was seen since 2018 for farmland butterflies. However, this is based on 4 data points so should be considered as indicative and not evidence of a clear trend.

Details on the England Biodiversity Indicators assessment methodology for this indicator can be found in sections 5 and 6 of the latest England Biodiversity Indicators report. Further information on this assessment, along with details on the methodology, is provided in the Assessment background page. Summaries by 25 Year Environment Plan goal and information on indicator links are presented in the Assessment results pages.

Table D4bii: Assessment of change

Component Subcomponent Period Date range Percentage change Smoothing function Assessment of change
D4bii Widespread butterflies on farmland Short term 2016 to 2021 5.54 Smoothed data Little or no change
D4bii Widespread butterflies on farmland Medium term 2011 to 2021 9.47 Smoothed data Little or no change
D4bii Widespread butterflies on farmland Long term 1990 to 2021 -11.82 Smoothed data Little or no change

Note that smoothed data presented in Figure D4bii were used for percentage change calculations. The smoothing method is specific to this indicator and differs from the default Loess smoothing approach adopted for most indicators for the Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. Percentage change figures in Table D4bii may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percentage change refers to the difference seen between the first and last years in the specified date range.

Figure D4c: Trends in abundance of bats in England, 1999 to 2020

Table D4c: Trends in abundance of bats in England, 1999 to 2020

Year 95% confidence interval lower bound 95% confidence interval upper bound Smoothed index Unsmoothed index
1999 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2000 99.98 104.51 102.62 97.19
2001 100.50 108.90 105.18 103.91
2002 101.01 112.60 107.20 96.01
2003 102.49 116.78 110.03 105.29
2004 104.80 121.96 113.65 106.60
2005 108.11 126.82 117.69 113.31
2006 110.75 130.87 121.32 115.47
2007 113.53 134.00 124.11 116.57
2008 115.32 136.48 125.91 122.60
2009 116.16 137.07 126.48 121.18
2010 116.51 137.33 126.41 116.55
2011 117.22 137.43 126.65 122.08
2012 117.71 138.74 127.40 115.74
2013 119.02 140.65 129.28 126.32
2014 120.85 143.51 131.90 118.73
2015 123.57 147.16 135.18 134.10
2016 125.74 150.24 137.69 129.79
2017 127.43 153.24 139.61 131.57
2018 129.09 155.37 141.60 134.10
2019 129.98 159.02 143.88 137.07
2020 131.08 162.88 146.48 139.64

Trend description for D4c

The indicator for widespread bats in England has increased by approximately 40% since the turn of the century. The bat species within this index vary in their habitat requirements, but all occur in farmland and woodland landscapes.

Assessment of change

Indicators for breeding wild birds in England are also reported in the England Biodiversity Indicators, which presents a short and long-term assessment for the same time periods used in this Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. These assessment results were reused here as the England Biodiversity Indicators method is tailored to the datasets of the specific taxonomic group (bats) and factors-in information on confidence. There was an increase (improvement) in the abundance of widespread bats over the short and long-term assessment periods. No medium-term assessment results are available for this indicator using the England Biodiversity Indicators methodology and it cannot be used to assess change since 2018.

Details on the England Biodiversity Indicators assessment methodology for this indicator can be found in sections 5 and 6 of the latest England Biodiversity Indicators report. Further information on the standard assessment used in the Outcome Indicator Framework, along with details on the methodology, is provided in the Assessment background page. Summaries by 25 Year Environment Plan goal and information on indicator links are presented in the Assessment results pages.

Table D4c: Assessment of change

Component Subcomponent Period Date range Percentage change Smoothing function Assessment of change
D4c Abundance of widespread bats Short term 2014 to 2019 9.08 Smoothed data Improvement
D4c Abundance of widespread bats Medium term N/A N/A N/A Not assessed
D4c Abundance of widespread bats Long term 1999 to 2019 43.88 Smoothed data Improvement

Note that smoothed data presented in Figure D4c were used for percentage change calculations. The smoothing method is specific to this indicator and differs from the default Loess smoothing approach adopted for most indicators for the Outcome Indicator Framework assessment. Percentage change figures in Table D4c may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percentage change refers to the difference seen between the first and last years in the specified date range.

Indicator Metadata