Information - This Indicator is an experimental statistic and has been published in order to facilitate user involvement in its development – information on how the data have been obtained and how the indicator has been prepared is available via the link(s) in the 'Readiness and links to data' section. We would welcome any feedback, particularly on the usefulness and value of this statistic, via 25YEPindicators@defra.gov.uk.
K1: Global environmental impacts of UK consumption of key commodities
Short Description
This indicator tracks the impact on the environment globally resulting from the UK's domestic consumption, linked to the sustainability of the products we consume. The indicator is based on multi regional input-output (MRIO) modelling, which is used to model global trade flows representing the monetary inputs and outputs across different countries and their commercial sectors. While the indicator is also based on a similar concept and approach to ‘J1 Carbon footprint and consumer buying choices’ and ‘J2 Raw material consumption,’ the detail of the methodologies does not align and therefore the results are not directly comparable.
Readiness and links to data
This indicator is not available for reporting in 2023 in a finalised form. An interim indicator is presented here that shows (a) the tropical deforestation risk and (b) the global ‘scarcity-weighted blue water use’ from UK consumption of imported commodities. A new biodiversity metric is reported for the first time this year (c) the predicted species loss from UK consumption. The figures are calculated using the Input-Output Trade Analysis (IOTA) framework and the results were reported for the first time in 2022 as an experimental statistic; information on how the data have been obtained and how the statistics have been calculated is available in UK Biodiversity Indicator A4 – Global biodiversity impacts of UK economic activity and sustainable consumption. The data are being published as experimental statistics, both here and within the source publication, to gather feedback and facilitate user involvement in the development of this indicator.
Notes on indicator
Data that trace all commodities back to their exact countries of origin are not publicly available. This information is necessary in order to accurately link production to deforestation and water use. Therefore, the outputs produced by this indicator are derived from modelling these trade flows, and so (whilst based on empirical statistics) they should be considered as best estimates rather than exact figures. Additional caveats and limitations are outlined in the source publication – the Global biodiversity impacts of UK economic activity and sustainable consumption.
This year for the first time we now include data from 2018 giving the first data point since the start of the 25 Year Environment Plan. The data predating this point enables a better understanding of a baseline from which to measure progress towards the goals of the 25 Year Environment Plan.
Indicator components
Figure K1a: Area of tropical deforestation associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2018
Table K1a: Area of tropical deforestation associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2018
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 72,886.85 |
| 2006 | 80,021.66 |
| 2007 | 66,307.32 |
| 2008 | 55,950.78 |
| 2009 | 49,164.14 |
| 2010 | 47,214.27 |
| 2011 | 42,990.34 |
| 2012 | 50,542.40 |
| 2013 | 42,118.94 |
| 2014 | 41,191.85 |
| 2015 | 36,660.04 |
| 2016 | 36,727.01 |
| 2017 | 36,047.53 |
| 2018 | 35,977.25 |
Trend description for K1a
UK consumption of crop, cattle-related and timber commodities in 2018 (the latest year for which data are available) was associated with an estimated 35,977 hectares of agriculture-driven tropical deforestation worldwide, a decrease of 51% since the time-series began in 2005. Between 2013 and 2018 there was a decrease of 15%. Between 2017 and 2018 (the latest year of data) there was a 0.2% decrease.
Assessment of change
A decrease (improvement) in the area of tropical deforestation was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2012-2017), as well as over the medium and long term trend.
Table K1a: Assessment of change
| Component | Subcomponent | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1a | None | Short term | 2012 to 2017 | -19.52 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1a | None | Medium term | 2007 to 2017 | -43.73 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1a | None | Long term | 2005 to 2017 | -54.33 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percent change figures in Table K1a may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.
Figure K1b: Global scarcity-weighted blue water use associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2018
Table K1b: Global scarcity-weighted blue water use associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2018
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 709,157,194,356.47 |
| 2006 | 697,968,179,641.10 |
| 2007 | 571,581,066,369.56 |
| 2008 | 518,190,287,535.40 |
| 2009 | 487,083,490,238.98 |
| 2010 | 516,972,610,779.27 |
| 2011 | 489,605,484,714.80 |
| 2012 | 505,040,552,649.69 |
| 2013 | 455,741,311,699.50 |
| 2014 | 441,685,510,257.44 |
| 2015 | 460,079,363,662.17 |
| 2016 | 361,913,299,923.88 |
| 2017 | 366,939,946,463.99 |
| 2018 | 368,833,329,278.85 |
Trend description for K1b
UK consumption of crop commodities in 2018 was responsible for an estimated 368.83 billion cubic-metres of scarcity-weighted blue water use worldwide, a decrease of 48% since 2005. Between 2013 and 2018 there was a decrease of 19%. Between 2017 and 2018 (the latest year) there was a 1% increase. Scarcity-weighted blue water use scales the blue water footprint (surface and groundwater consumed as a result of production) according to water availability in a region after human and aquatic ecosystem demands have been met.
Assessment of change
A decrease (improvement) in the amount of blue water used (scarcity weighted) was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2012-2017), as well as over the medium and long term trend.
Table K1b: Assessment of change
| Component | Subcomponent | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1b | None | Short term | 2012 to 2017 | -22.52 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1b | None | Medium term | 2007 to 2017 | -35.72 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1b | None | Long term | 2005 to 2017 | -48.50 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percent change figures in Table K1b may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.
Figure K1c: Regional species loss associated with UK consumption (the number of species predicted to be committed to extinction if current conditions continue, per ecoregion), 2005 to 2018
Table K1c: Regional species loss associated with UK consumption (the number of species predicted to be committed to extinction if current conditions continue, per ecoregion), 2005 to 2018
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 90.69 |
| 2006 | 88.68 |
| 2007 | 79.24 |
| 2008 | 76.49 |
| 2009 | 70.21 |
| 2010 | 73.26 |
| 2011 | 67.98 |
| 2012 | 71.65 |
| 2013 | 67.80 |
| 2014 | 70.28 |
| 2015 | 70.60 |
| 2016 | 60.28 |
| 2017 | 61.41 |
| 2018 | 62.65 |
Trend description for K1c
UK consumption of crop commodities in 2018 was responsible for a predicted regional species loss of approximately 63 species, a decrease of 31% since 2005. Between 2013 and 2018 there was an 8% decrease. Between 2017 and 2018 (the latest year) there was a 2% increase.
Assessment of change
A decrease (improvement) in the number of species predicted to be committed to extinction if current conditions continue was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2012-2017), as well as over the medium and long term trend.
Table K1c: Assessment of change
| Component | Subcomponent | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1c | None | Short term | 2012 to 2017 | -10.16 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1c | None | Medium term | 2007 to 2017 | -21.68 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1c | None | Long term | 2005 to 2017 | -31.75 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percent change figures in Table K1a may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.