K1: Global environmental impacts of UK consumption of key commodities
Short Description
This indicator tracks the impact on the environment globally resulting from the UK's domestic consumption, linked to the sustainability of the products we consume. The indicator is based on multi regional input-output (MRIO) modelling, which is used to model global trade flows representing the monetary inputs and outputs across different countries and their commercial sectors. While the indicator is also based on a similar concept and approach to J1 Carbon footprint and consumer buying choices and J2 Raw material consumption, the detail of the methodologies does not align and therefore the results are not directly comparable.
Readiness and links to data
An indicator is presented here that shows (a) the deforestation risk, (b) the global ‘scarcity-weighted blue water use’ from UK consumption of imported commodities, and (c) a biodiversity metric based on the predicted extinctions from UK consumption. This year the K1c metric has been replaced, switching from the regional species loss metric to the predicted number of extinctions. This new metric will directly attribute changes in the UK’s consumption to the extinction risk faced by species globally, providing a better understanding of the impact of UK consumption on global biodiversity. The figures are calculated using the Input-Output Trade Analysis (IOTA) framework and the results were reported for the first time in 2021 as an official statistic in development. In 2024 these results were newly designated as an official statistic within the UK Biodiversity Indicators. Information on how the data have been obtained and how the statistics have been calculated is available in UK Biodiversity Indicator – Global biodiversity impacts of UK economic activity and sustainable consumption. An interactive dashboard called The Global Environmental Impacts of Consumption (GEIC) Indicator, created by Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) and the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York (SEI York) allows for a more detailed navigation of the data supporting the K1 indicator, including additional metrics, following the impacts of other nations. Further details of the updates to the methodology and data source can be found in the Technical documentation for UK Biodiversity Indicator A4.
Notes on indicator
Data that trace all commodities back to their exact countries of origin are not publicly available. This information is necessary to accurately link production to biodiversity, deforestation and water use. Therefore, the outputs produced by this indicator are derived from modelling these trade flows, and so (whilst based on empirical statistics) they should be considered as best estimates rather than exact figures. Additional caveats and limitations are outlined in the source publication – the Global biodiversity impacts of UK economic activity and sustainable consumption.
Note that the entire time series has been recalculated compared to the previous data release, this was done to ensure consistency across the time series following updates to underlying data sources. This includes the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations time series data, which is often updated with corrections or additions, and so the most recent version is downloaded for use each year. The underlying deforestation data has also undergone methodological improvements since last year, including greater spatial resolution and more accurate identification of plantation vs natural forests. See the technical documentation for further information
Indicator components
Figure K1a: Area of deforestation associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2022
Table K1a: Area of deforestation associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2022
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 77.91 |
| 2006 | 88.19 |
| 2007 | 79.70 |
| 2008 | 72.17 |
| 2009 | 65.65 |
| 2010 | 63.48 |
| 2011 | 52.19 |
| 2012 | 59.94 |
| 2013 | 48.17 |
| 2014 | 50.76 |
| 2015 | 48.64 |
| 2016 | 47.69 |
| 2017 | 45.37 |
| 2018 | 47.97 |
| 2019 | 45.18 |
| 2020 | 44.62 |
| 2021 | 40.48 |
| 2022 | 35.58 |
Trend description for K1a
UK consumption of crop, cattle-related and timber commodities in 2022 (the latest year for which data are available) was associated with an estimated 35,578 hectares of agriculture-driven deforestation worldwide, a decrease of 54.3% since the time-series began in 2005. Between 2013 and 2020 the level of deforestation stabilised. Between 2021 and 2022 (the latest year of data) there was a 12.1% decrease.
Assessment of change
A decrease (improvement) in the area of deforestation was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2017 to 2022), as well as over the medium- and long-term trend.
Change since 2018 has also been assessed, showing a decrease (improvement) in the area of deforestation associated with UK consumption.
Table K1a: Assessment of change
| Component | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1a | Short term | 2017 to 2022 | -20.47 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1a | Medium term | 2012 to 2022 | -31.14 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1a | Long term | 2005 to 2022 | -56.09 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percent change figures in Table K1a may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.
Figure K1b: Global scarcity-weighted blue water use associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2022
Table K1b: Global scarcity-weighted blue water use associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2022
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 836.78 |
| 2006 | 868.31 |
| 2007 | 731.24 |
| 2008 | 635.65 |
| 2009 | 634.25 |
| 2010 | 691.29 |
| 2011 | 704.54 |
| 2012 | 717.98 |
| 2013 | 709.58 |
| 2014 | 701.52 |
| 2015 | 728.35 |
| 2016 | 626.91 |
| 2017 | 645.20 |
| 2018 | 699.08 |
| 2019 | 730.93 |
| 2020 | 757.96 |
| 2021 | 821.24 |
| 2022 | 758.27 |
Trend description for K1b
UK consumption of crop commodities in 2022 was responsible for an estimated 758.27 billion cubic-metres of scarcity-weighted blue water use worldwide, a decrease of 9.4% since 2005. Between 2021 and 2022 (the latest year) there was a 7.6% decrease. Scarcity-weighted blue water use scales the blue water footprint (surface and groundwater consumed as a result of production) according to water availability in a region after human and aquatic ecosystem demands have been met.
Assessment of change
An increase (deterioration) in the amount of blue water used (scarcity-weighted) was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2017-2022), as well as over the medium-term trend. Over the long-term trend however there has been an improvement (decrease).
Change since 2018 has also been assessed, showing an increase (deterioration) in the amount of blue water used (scarcity-weighted) associated with UK consumption.
Table K1b: Assessment of change
| Component | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1b | Short term | 2017 to 2022 | 18.63 | Loess | Deterioration |
| K1b | Medium term | 2012 to 2022 | 14.53 | Loess | Deterioration |
| K1b | Long term | 2005 to 2022 | -6.31 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percent change figures in Table K1b may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.
Figure K1c: Predicted number of species commited to extinction in the next 100 years worldwide assocuated with UK consumption of crop commodities annually, 2005 to 2022
Table K1c: Predicted number of species commited to extinction in the next 100 years worldwide assocuated with UK consumption of crop commodities annually, 2005 to 2022
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 5.65 |
| 2006 | 5.60 |
| 2007 | 5.17 |
| 2008 | 4.74 |
| 2009 | 4.45 |
| 2010 | 4.40 |
| 2011 | 3.99 |
| 2012 | 4.49 |
| 2013 | 3.94 |
| 2014 | 4.02 |
| 2015 | 4.03 |
| 2016 | 3.60 |
| 2017 | 3.55 |
| 2018 | 3.70 |
| 2019 | 3.78 |
| 2020 | 3.84 |
| 2021 | 4.03 |
| 2022 | 4.08 |
Trend description for K1c
UK consumption of crop commodities in 2022 resulted in a LIFE score of 4.08, equating to a predicted 4.08 species to be globally extinct in the next 100 years, based upon the actions taken in 2022, and assuming no mitigating actions are taken. A steady increase in the LIFE score has been observed from 2016, rising by 13.1% to it's final value in 2022.
Assessment of change
A deterioration (increase) in the LIFE score was observed over the short-term time period (2017-2022) with an increase in the number of species predicted to be committed to global extinction within the next 100 years. Across the medium term little or no change is found. An overall improvement is observed in the long term, with a 28.49% reduction in LIFE score across the entire time series. Change since 2018 has also been assessed, showing an increase (deterioration).
Table K1c: Assessment of change
| Component | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1c | Short term | 2017 to 2022 | 12.29 | Loess | Deterioration |
| K1c | Medium term | 2012 to 2022 | -0.33 | Loess | Little or no change |
| K1c | Long term | 2005 to 2022 | -28.49 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percent change figures in Table K1c may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.