Information - This Indicator is an official statistic in development and has been published in order to facilitate user involvement in its development – information on how the data have been obtained and how the indicator has been prepared is available via the link(s) in the 'Readiness and links to data' section. We would welcome any feedback, particularly on the usefulness and value of this statistic, via 25YEPindicators@defra.gov.uk.
K1: Global environmental impacts of UK consumption of key commodities
Short Description
This indicator tracks the impact on the environment globally resulting from the UK's domestic consumption, linked to the sustainability of the products we consume. The indicator is based on multi regional input-output (MRIO) modelling, which is used to model global trade flows representing the monetary inputs and outputs across different countries and their commercial sectors. While the indicator is also based on a similar concept and approach to ‘J1 Carbon footprint and consumer buying choices’ and ‘J2 Raw material consumption,’ the detail of the methodologies does not align and therefore the results are not directly comparable.
Readiness and links to data
This indicator is not available for reporting in 2024 in a finalised form. An interim indicator is presented here that shows (a) the deforestation risk, (b) the global ‘scarcity-weighted blue water use’ from UK consumption of imported commodities, and (c) a biodiversity metric based on the predicted species loss from UK consumption. The figures are calculated using the Input-Output Trade Analysis (IOTA) framework and the results were reported for the first time in 2022 as an official statistic in development. Information on how the data have been obtained and how the statistics have been calculated is available in UK Biodiversity Indicator A4 – Global biodiversity impacts of UK economic activity and sustainable consumption. An interactive dashboard called The Global Environmental Impacts of Consumption (GEIC) Indicator, created by Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) allows for a more detailed navigation of the data supporting the K1 indicator, including additional metrics, following the impacts of other nations. This year there have been updates to the underlying sources, including the incorporation of additional spatial datasets, an extension to the time series and expansion of the scope for the deforestation metric to cover all deforestation rather than only tropical deforestation. The inclusion of these sources has been incorporated and recalculated for the entire time series of each component and consequently the updated data may differ from previous versions. Further details of the updates to the methodology and data source can be found in the Technical documentation for UK Biodiversity Indicator A4. The data are being published as an official statistic in development, both here and within the source publication, to gather feedback and facilitate user involvement in the development of this indicator.
Notes on indicator
Data that trace all commodities back to their exact countries of origin are not publicly available. This information is necessary to accurately link production to deforestation and water use. Therefore, the outputs produced by this indicator are derived from modelling these trade flows, and so (whilst based on empirical statistics) they should be considered as best estimates rather than exact figures. Additional caveats and limitations are outlined in the source publication – the Global biodiversity impacts of UK economic activity and sustainable consumption.
Indicator components
Figure K1a: Area of deforestation associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2021
Table K1a: Area of deforestation associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2021
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 60,786.04 |
| 2006 | 67,923.95 |
| 2007 | 58,760.34 |
| 2008 | 51,830.92 |
| 2009 | 46,748.19 |
| 2010 | 44,686.84 |
| 2011 | 37,422.53 |
| 2012 | 41,239.77 |
| 2013 | 36,412.81 |
| 2014 | 37,927.09 |
| 2015 | 37,041.35 |
| 2016 | 35,333.17 |
| 2017 | 30,831.54 |
| 2018 | 32,886.35 |
| 2019 | 30,146.48 |
| 2020 | 30,961.12 |
| 2021 | 30,656.09 |
Trend description for K1a
UK consumption of crop, cattle-related and timber commodities in 2021 (the latest year for which data are available) was associated with an estimated 30,656 hectares of agriculture-driven deforestation worldwide, a decrease of 49.5% since the time-series began in 2005. Between 2017 and 2021 the level of deforestation showed stability. Between 2020 and 2021 (the latest year of data) there was a 1% decrease.
Assessment of change
A decrease (improvement) in the area of deforestation was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2015 to 2020), as well as over the medium and long-term trend.
Change since 2018 has also been assessed, showing a decrease (improvement) in the area of deforestation associated with UK consumption.
Table K1a: Assessment of change
| Component | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1a | Short term | 2015 to 2020 | -14.77 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1a | Medium term | 2010 to 2020 | -29.98 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1a | Long term | 2005 to 2020 | -53.53 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percentage change figures in Table K1a may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.
Figure K1b: Global scarcity-weighted blue water use associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2021
Table K1b: Global scarcity-weighted blue water use associated with UK consumption, 2005 to 2021
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 837,281,575,003.83 |
| 2006 | 868,759,723,062.74 |
| 2007 | 731,625,534,488.34 |
| 2008 | 636,136,758,123.01 |
| 2009 | 634,731,710,149.28 |
| 2010 | 691,298,308,721.32 |
| 2011 | 704,593,965,802.02 |
| 2012 | 716,915,303,878.87 |
| 2013 | 707,720,910,483.60 |
| 2014 | 699,106,780,288.33 |
| 2015 | 726,286,597,168.72 |
| 2016 | 621,535,128,880.75 |
| 2017 | 640,979,007,634.97 |
| 2018 | 683,346,828,140.62 |
| 2019 | 730,713,245,554.63 |
| 2020 | 759,072,225,343.63 |
| 2021 | 797,321,835,851.96 |
Trend description for K1b
UK consumption of crop commodities in 2021 was responsible for an estimated 797.32 billion cubic-metres of scarcity-weighted blue water use worldwide, a decrease of 4.8% since 2005. Between 2016 and 2021 there has been an increase of 28.3%. Between 2020 and 2021 (the latest year) there was a 5% increase. Scarcity-weighted blue water use scales the blue water footprint (surface and groundwater consumed as a result of production) according to water availability in a region after human and aquatic ecosystem demands have been met.
Assessment of change
An increase (deterioration) in the amount of blue water used (scarcity weighted) was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2015 to 2020), as well as over the medium-term trend. Over the long-term trend however there has been an improvement (decrease).
Change since 2018 has also been assessed, showing a decrease (improvement) in the area of the amount of blue water used (scarcity weighted) associated with UK consumption.
Table K1b: Assessment of change
| Component | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1b | Short term | 2015 to 2020 | 11.09 | Loess | Deterioration |
| K1b | Medium term | 2010 to 2020 | 11.48 | Loess | Deterioration |
| K1b | Long term | 2005 to 2020 | -13.26 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percentage change figures in Table K1b may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.
Figure K1c: Regional species loss associated with UK consumption (the number of species predicted to be committed to extinction if current conditions continue, per ecoregion), 2005 to 2021
Table K1c: Regional species loss associated with UK consumption (the number of species predicted to be committed to extinction if current conditions continue, per ecoregion), 2005 to 2021
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 94.02 |
| 2006 | 91.71 |
| 2007 | 81.79 |
| 2008 | 78.71 |
| 2009 | 72.22 |
| 2010 | 75.68 |
| 2011 | 70.20 |
| 2012 | 74.64 |
| 2013 | 70.76 |
| 2014 | 73.14 |
| 2015 | 73.57 |
| 2016 | 62.73 |
| 2017 | 63.44 |
| 2018 | 65.65 |
| 2019 | 67.18 |
| 2020 | 67.07 |
| 2021 | 71.43 |
Trend description for K1c
UK consumption of crop commodities in 2021 was responsible for a predicted regional species loss of approximately 71 species, a decrease of 24% since 2005. Between 2016 and 2021 there was a 13.9% increase, 2020 and 2021 (the latest year) there was a 6.5% increase.
Assessment of change
Little or no change in the number of species predicted to be committed to extinction if current conditions continue was observed over the most recent 5 years of change for which trends can be assessed (2015-2020). However, a decrease (improvement) was observed over the medium and long-term trends. Change since 2018 has also been assessed for the data, showing a decrease (improvement).
Table K1c: Assessment of change
| Component | Period | Date range | Percentage change | Smoothing function | Assessment of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1c | Short term | 2015 to 2020 | -1.48 | Loess | Little or no change |
| K1c | Medium term | 2010 to 2020 | -7.27 | Loess | Improvement |
| K1c | Long term | 2005 to 2020 | -28.57 | Loess | Improvement |
Note that assessment categories for short, medium and long term were assigned based on smoothed data, so percentage change figures in Table K1c may differ from unsmoothed values quoted elsewhere. Percent change refers to the difference seen from the first to last year in the specified date range.